China vs the US: Who's Winning the Humanoid Race in 2026

Ask who leads in humanoid robots and you'll get two confident, opposite answers. Both are partly right — because they're measuring different things. Here's the scoreboard that actually separates volume from value.

China is winning on units — by a lot

Per TrendForce, China's humanoid robot output is projected to grow 94% in 2026, with Unitree and AgiBot together taking nearly 80% of total shipments. Unitree sold about 5,500 humanoids last year — the world's top seller — and expects 10,000 to 20,000 units in 2026. Its average selling price has fallen to roughly 167,600 yuan (~$25,000), with a base G1 advertised near $13,500. By one estimate, Chinese makers control about 90% of the humanoid market, and Unitree alone shipped roughly 36× more units last year than US rivals Figure and Tesla combined.

The US is winning on value — for now

Volume isn't the only scoreboard. American players lead on foundation-model AI and on paid, high-value industrial work: Figure's 03 is on a commercial contract at BMW, and the bet is that the money is in robots that can be reasoned with, not just shipped cheaply. Even Musk has conceded the point, calling China "very good at AI, very good at manufacturing… the toughest competition for Tesla."